On 12 Jul 2003 14:05:44 -0000, Skulking Rogue
<anon@cheshire.hopto.org> wrote:

>Townhall.com http://tinyurl.com/gqa7
>by Robert Novak
>
>The Rev. Al Sharpton is telling friends he welcomes the sudden
>rise of Howard Dean to the top tier of Democratic presidential
>candidates because the former governor of Vermont dilutes the
>white vote without attracting African-Americans.

>Sharpton's strategy is to capture black voters while seven white
>candidates split the white vote. Off all top tier candidates,
>Dean has the least African-American support but now is near the
>lead of the largely white electorate in the first two tests of
>Iowa and New Hampshire. Sharpton counts on Dean to divide white
>voters in important primaries in South Carolina and Michigan,
>where African-Americans play a potentially decisive role.

Especially in SC, which comes right after NH. Which means that most,
possilby all 7, of the white candidates could still be in the game.
Estimates are that blacks could make up roughly *half* of the voters
in that Democratic primary. Thus, assuming Carol Mosely Braun doesn't
play spoiler, it would not be difficult for Sharpton to come in at
least 2nd, and perhaps even 1st (with a plurality).

Pretty Boy Edwards, from next door NC, is expected to get the lion's
share of the white vote in SC, with Gephardt and Graham probably doing
OK as well.

The Michigan primary comes a few weeks later. By that time, several,
perhaps even most of the white boyz will have washed out, making it
much more difficult for Sharpton to fracture the white vote.

>Current polls do not show Sharpton with a majority of black
>voters, but he aims to raise his totals as the elections near.
>Sharpton does not regard the only other black candidate, former
>Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, as a serious adversary.

Neither does anyone else, but she was apparently the only black person
the DNC could find willing to do their dirty work, namely attempt to
draw black votes away from Sharpton. But she's failing miserably, by
all accounts.

Her presence, along with that of Dennis Kucinich, inflates the number
of candidates in each debate, thus assuring that Sharpton (and
everyone else) will have only a few minutes of air time. And the
presence of all 3 is a concession to the Nader wing of the party,
although it appears that Dean has pretty much vacuumed up most of
those voters.

>When Sharpton doesn't think you're a serious candidate, then
>that's the ultimate insult.

You could say he dissed her....