http://people-press.org/reports/disp...3?ReportID=187

Summary of Findings

As presidential campaign activities start to pick up steam, President Bush
is facing increasing public criticism of his efforts to deal with domestic
issues and greater wariness of the military situation in Iraq. At the same
time, his potential Democratic rivals show little early appeal and the
Democratic party has lost significant ground on health care, an issue on
which the party has pinned great hopes for 2004.

Discontent with President Bush's efforts to revive the economy has risen
sharply, from 53% in May to 62% in the current survey. In addition, fully
seven-in-ten (72%) believe the president is not making a strong enough
effort to deal with growing health care problems in this country. Bush's
overall job performance rating of 60% is down 14 points from its post-Iraq
war peak (74%).

Americans also are taking an increasingly negative view of the U.S. military
operation in Iraq. Fewer than a quarter (23%) say the U.S. military effort
there is going "very well," far fewer than the percentage who expressed that
view throughout the war. Despite this growing concern, two-thirds (66%)
favor a major U.S. commitment to rebuild Iraq and establish a stable
government there. About the same number (67%) continue to back the decision
to go to war in Iraq, down slightly from early and mid-April (74%).

There are no signs that the public's unease over developments at home and
abroad are providing the Democrats with much political momentum. In fact,
the Democratic Party is losing its historic advantage over the Republicans
on health care. By 38%-31%, the public favors the Democrats as the party
best able to reform the health care system. That is the smallest edge the
Democrats have held on this measure since October 1994 (41%-34%), after the
demise of the Clinton administration's controversial national health care
proposal.

Changing partisan evaluations come at time when somewhat more Americans
report having trouble paying for health care costs than was the case in the
mid-1990s. Nearly half of all Americans (49%) say they have experienced
problems with affording health care or maintaining health insurance
coverage, up from 45% in 1994.

The latest nationwide poll of 1,201 Americans by the Pew Research Center
finds tempered enthusiasm for a Bush second term; 63% say there is a "good"
or "some" chance they will vote for the president next fall. That is
somewhat less than the number who said they would consider voting for
then-Gov. Bush in June 1999 (69%), mostly because views of Bush have become
much more polarized politically. But the field of Democratic candidates
generates much less interest than did the field of candidates four years
ago. So far, none of the nine candidates gets a majority saying they would
consider voting for them (among voters familiar with the candidates). The
same is true for non-candidates Al Gore and Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Four years ago, candidates in both parties attracted far more voter
interest. On the Republican side, solid majorities said there was at least
some chance they would vote for Bush (69%), Elizabeth Dole (61%), and Sen.
John McCain (55%), who had relatively little name recognition at the time.
Among Democrats, majorities said they would consider voting for Gore and
former Sen. Bill Bradley, who also was not very well known (54% Gore, 53%
Bradley).

The current survey finds little in the way of Clinton nostalgia. Bill
Clinton's presidency continues to divide the public ÂÂ* about half (49%) say
he will be remembered as one of the "very best" presidents or at least
better than most, while nearly the same number (46%) believe history's
judgment will not be favorable. That division has persisted since 1999. And
despite brisk sales for Hillary Clinton's memoirs, fewer than one-in-ten
(8%) say they are very closely following news reports on the book, which is
by far the lowest interest measured for any story this month.


Evaluations of Military Effort Decline

The ongoing violence in Iraq and rising number of U.S. casualties have taken
a toll on public perceptions of the military conflict. Not only do fewer
than a quarter of Americans (23%) have a very positive impression of how
things are going, but nearly as many (21%) say the military operation is not
going well. During the war, no more than 10% took a negative view of the
military situation in Iraq.

Perceptions of the military effort, as well overall attitudes toward Iraq,
remain highly partisan. Nearly twice as many Republicans as Democrats say
the military effort is going very well (34% vs. 18%). But members of both
parties have a far less positive impression of progress in the military
operation than they did in the war's final phase (April 8-16). At that
point, 77% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats said the military effort was
going very well.

Two-thirds of Americans (67%) think it was the right decision to go to war
in Iraq, down somewhat from the end of the war (74%). Roughly nine-in-ten
Republicans (88%) continue to back that decision, compared with fewer than
half of Democrats (48%), down from 59% in the April 8-16 survey.

There is less partisan division over a U.S. commitment to rebuild Iraq.
Majorities of Republicans (76%) and Democrats (60%) support a major American
effort to rebuild Iraq and establish a stable government there. But only
about half (47%) of those who think things are currently going poorly in
Iraq (a group that is mostly comprised of Democrats and independents) favors
a major U.S. commitment to rebuild the country, compared with nearly
three-quarters (74%) of those who say things are going very well or fairly
well.


No Democratic Frontrunner

At this early stage of the presidential campaign, name recognition is
crucially important. Sen. Joe Lieberman and Rep. Dick Gephardt are the best
known candidates, among all voters as well as among Democrats and those who
lean Democratic (80% of Democratic voters say they have heard of Lieberman,
70% Gephardt). But none of the Democratic candidates garners a level of
enthusiasm that sets them apart from the field.

Gephardt, Sen. John Kerry and Lieberman have the most potential support
among Democratic voters. Two-thirds (66%) of those who have heard of
Gephardt say they would consider voting for him. Kerry and Lieberman receive
comparable levels of support (65% and 62%, respectively).

While Sen. John Edwards is less familiar, 59% of Democratic voters who have
heard of Edwards say there is at least some chance they would vote for him.
Slightly fewer say the same about Howard Dean (53%), Sen. Bob Graham (47%)
and Carol Moseley Braun (46%).

In addition to being known by just 20% of Democrats, Rep. Dennis Kucinich's
appeal is also narrower than most other candidates ÂÂ* more say there is no
chance they would vote for him (45%) as say there is a chance (40%). Al
Sharpton is far more familiar (67% know his name), but has even more limited
appeal. Fully 70% of Democrats say there is no chance they would vote for
Sharpton, more than say this about George W. Bush.


Non-Candidates: Gore and Clinton

Al Gore, who declared late last year that he would not be a candidate in
2004, attracts the most potential support among Democrats. Three-quarters of
Democrats say there is at least some chance they would vote for Gore, and
42% say there is a good chance they would vote for the former vice
president. Gore drew comparable interest among Democrats four years ago. In
June 1999, 78% of Democratic voters said they would consider voting for
Gore.

Roughly two-thirds of Democratic voters (68%) say there is at least some
chance they would vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton, who also has indicated she
is not running next year. While Gore and Clinton demonstrate strength among
Democrats, both continue to be polarizing political figures. When the views
of all voters are considered, eight-in-ten Republicans (82%) and about half
of independents (47%) say there is no chance they would vote for Gore.
Slightly more Republicans and independents have ruled out voting for Sen.
Clinton (84% of Republicans, 55% of independents).


No Clinton Nostalgia

The public remains evenly divided in its assessment of President Bill
Clinton's performance while in office, and this view has remained unchanged
over the past four years. Overall, 49% say he will be remembered as either
one of the "very best" presidents (14%) or "better than most" (35%), while
46% say he will turn out to be "not as good as most" (28%) or "definitely
worse than most" (18%).

These current views of Clinton's presidency are virtually identical to
measures taken in surveys dating back to 1999, indicating that the public's
perceptions of Clinton were locked in before he left office. And not
surprisingly, there is a sharp partisan and racial gap in evaluations of the
Clinton presidency. Three-quarters of Democrats (76%) believe Clinton will
be regarded at least as one of the better presidents, while about as many
Republicans (75%) think his performance was sub-par. And while most whites
(54%) think Clinton was not as good as or worse than most others, fully 87%
of blacks believe Clinton was better than most (43%) or one of the very best
(44%) presidents.


No Decline in Health Care Problems

The survey finds nearly four-in-ten (37%) saying that the topic of problems
in the health care system comes up frequently in conversations with family
and friends, and another 31% say they talk about it occasionally. (This
survey was largely completed before passage June 27 of legislation providing
a prescription drug benefit as part of Medicare.)

This indicator of concern falls somewhat below the levels recorded in March
1994 during the debate over the health care reform proposals of the Clinton
administration. At that time, 48% said problems with the system came up
frequently in conversations, with another 29% saying they talked about it
occasionally.

Even though problems with the health care system are not as topical today as
in the midst of discussion about Clinton's efforts to reform the system in
1994, the number of people reporting individual problems with the system in
the past year is at least as high as it was nine years ago. Overall, 49%
report they have encountered at least one of four different problems over
the past year ÂÂ* trouble affording health care, having coverage dropped or
denied, or staying in a job just to keep coverage ÂÂ* compared with 45% in
1994.

In addition, 35% of Americans say they have had "great difficulty" paying
for prescription drugs, a measure that was not part of the 1994 survey. The
more general problem of inability to afford the cost of necessary medical
care (34%) is mentioned nearly as often, and is up somewhat compared with
1994 (when 29% cited it). Nearly one-quarter (24%) say they have stayed in a
job they did not like just to keep the health insurance coverage (compared
with 21% in 1994).

Other problems included being refused coverage because of preexisting
conditions (12%) and being dropped from or refused coverage by a plan (10%).
The percentage of people who report keeping a job just to maintain coverage
and who say they have been refused coverage has not declined in the past
nine years, despite enactment in 1996 of a law aimed at making it easier for
people who change jobs to maintain their health insurance.


More Blacks Report Problems

While problems with the health care system have increased modestly compared
with eight years ago, the most notable change since 1994 is which Americans
report troubles with the system. African-Americans, Democrats and people
with annual household incomes of below $30,000 are now much more likely to
say they are experiencing such problems.

Notably, nearly seven-in-ten African-Americans (69%) now say they are
experiencing at least one of four problems related to paying for and
maintaining health coverage (difficulty affording health care, refused
coverage, refused because of pre-existing condition, or stayed at a job to
maintain coverage). In 1994, fewer than half of African-Americans reported
at least one of these problems (46%).

By comparison, the percentage of whites who report experiencing problems
with the health care system has not increased significantly since 1994 (46%
now, 44% then).

Affording health care, in particular, has become a more prevalent problem
among African-Americans. In 1994, blacks were only four percentage points
more likely than whites to say they had great difficulty affording needed
care (33% for blacks, 29% for whites). Today the gap is 21% (53% for blacks,
32% for whites).

The racial differences contribute to a political gap in the number reporting
problems with the health care system. In 1994, Democrats and Republicans
reported similar experiences: overall, 39% of Republicans and 46% of
Democrats had at least one problem. Today, there is a much bigger
difference: 41% of Republicans report at least one problem, but 58% of
Democrats do. The change is especially notable in difficulty affording
health care: 26% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats reported this problem
in 1994; today, 28% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats say they have
trouble affording care.

As was the case in 1994, Americans age 65 and older are far less likely to
report problems with the health care system than are younger Americans.
Roughly a third of seniors (32%) say they have experienced one or more
problems with the system, compared with majorities in other age groups. And
just a quarter of seniors report trouble affording general health care
costs, compared with 36% of people under age 65.

In addition, people age 65 and older are no more likely than younger
Americans to report problems in affording prescription drugs. About
three-in-ten seniors (31%) say they have had great difficulty in affording
prescription drugs in the past year. That compares with 36% of those under
age 65.


Modest Dem Edge on Reforming Health Care

Despite President Bush's strong push for the new Medicare prescription drug
benefit, 72% of the public say he could be doing more to deal with health
care problems in America. While Democrats (at 88%) overwhelmingly feel this
way, even a majority of Republicans agree (52%). Although most seniors think
the president could be doing more, they are not as negative as younger
Americans are about his effort on the issue: 32% of those age 65 and older
say he is doing enough, compared with 20% of those younger than 65.

Yet the Democratic party is not benefitting from the concerns of the public
on this issue. The poll finds that the Democrats hold only a slight edge
over the Republicans as the party the public trusts to reform the U.S.
health care system: 38% pick the Democrats, 31% pick the Republicans. During
the 1990s, Democrats typically posted much larger leads on this issue. In
September 1998, 43% preferred Democrats to reform the health care system,
compared with 31% who favored Republicans. Democrats and Republicans
overwhelmingly favor their own party on the issue, while independents favor
the Democratic party by 32%-22%.


Little Change in Views on Homosexuality

The public remains divided over whether homosexuality should be accepted by
society. While 47% say homosexuality is "a way of life that should be
accepted by society," nearly as many (45%) believe that it is a way of life
that "should be discouraged by society." (This question was asked as part of
separate survey of 1,000 Americans, conducted June 4-8, which will be
released later this summer.)

Attitudes on this issue have changed little in recent years. Since 1994,
between 46% and 50% of Americans have supported societal acceptance of
homosexuality. Opposition to that view has ranged from 50% (in 1997) to 41%
in 2000.

There are major religious, political and demographic differences in these
attitudes. Nearly two-thirds of Catholics (65%) and almost half of white
mainline Protestants (49%) support societal acceptance of homosexuality
compared with just 22% of white evangelical Protestants. Majorities of
Democrats (57%) and independents (52%) believe society should accept
homosexuality, but only 37% of Republicans agree.

Age also is a significant factor in opinion on homosexuality. Nearly
two-thirds of Americans (64%) under 30 endorse societal acceptance of
homosexuality; fewer than half in other age groups agree. Among those age 65
and older, nearly twice as many say society should discourage homosexuality
as believe it should be accepted (57% vs. 29%).


Iraq Again Tops News Index

Public interest in developments in Iraq has declined somewhat since June,
but that story continues to lead the news interest index. Nearly four-in-ten
Americans (37%) say they followed news about Iraq very closely, down from
46% in June. In May, 63% of Americans paid very close attention to news
reports about Iraq.

Nearly three-in-ten (28%) paid very close attention to a related story ÂÂ* the
controversy over the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
About as many Americans (27%) followed reports on violence between Israelis
and Palestinians.

About one-in-five Americans (22%) followed news on the murder of Laci
Peterson very closely. Interest in that story has declined since May, when
31% followed that case very closely. And just 8% of Americans paid very
close attention to the publication of Sen. Clinton's memoirs. Even among
Democrats, this attracted by far the lowest level interest of any story this
month (13% very closely). Republicans and independents showed even less
interest (6% of Republicans, 5% of independents).


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"If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier, just so
long as I'm the dictator." - GW Bush 12/18/2000.

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that
we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic
and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public."
---Theodore Roosevelt

"Feels Good!"
---George W. Bush on the Brink of Declaring War on Iraq.